US Election Year Predictions

Come November, Americans will be heading to the polls to select the next President. While there are numerous issues facing the voters in this election cycle, and numerous changes waiting in the wings no matter who wins, one thing is certain: not much will change in the Federal Government's stance toward online gambling.

How come?
There are many reasons. To start with, while Republican John McCain has a history of playing the tables in Vegas and has pushed to have college sports betting and Ultimate Fighting banned, and while Democrat Barak Obama's campaign recently ran a possibly illegal online lottery as a fundraiser, neither major party's Presidential candidate has taken a public position on the issue of online casinos.

This is most likely a purposeful silence. A majority of Americans are probably uneasy about online gambling, but are also, in typically American fashion, unwilling to push for an outright ban. Based on their records, neither candidate seems particularly opposed to casino gambling generally, or to online gambling particularly, but neither one is likely to push for outright legalization of the industry. Such a stance would only stir up a hornet's nest, something no candidate for office ever wants to do.

It's important to remember, in this discussion, that the United States is a country full of self-contradictory positions. Support, and opposition, to online gambling crosses party lines; the industry's two best friends in Congress are Democrat Barney Frank and Republican/Libertarian Ron Paul.  The Unlawful Internet Gaming Enforcement Act of 2006 received bipartisan support, but neither party is defending the Act in the various court challenges against it.

Non-events to follow
The bottom line is that, while online gambling does not enjoy widespread support in the States, people have grown used to it, and online gambling no longer commands the intense disapprobation it once did. Combined with Americans' cultural dislike of regulation, a number of non-events are likely to occur in the year after the election: the UIGEA will likely be struck down or repealed; Congress will not try to legalize or regulate the online gambling; and neither candidate is likely to push for any changes toward online gambling, even after taking office in January.

What to expect
Gamers should expect that the online gaming industry in America will remain slightly marginalized, in a limbo-land between legal and illegal, at least for the short-term future.