Obama Leads Odds to Take US Presidency

Sport has always been big betting, but politics has become increasingly more popular for gamblers too.  With the worldwide coverage of the US presidential election akin to a major sporting event like the football World Cup, gamblers can now put their money on their choice in the contest between Barack Obama and John McCain in the same way they would on a match between France and Italy.

Obama vs McCain
With the Democratic (Obama) and Republican (McCain) nominees already decided, and the November 4 election only a matter of months away, Obama has gradually become the steady favorite to become the 44th President of the United States of America.

Obama is currently listed at 2/5 odds at UK bookmaker Ladbrokes. McCain is 15/8. The two other candidates, independents Bob Barr and perennial participant Ralph Nader, are at 250/1 - a good indication of the fact that a candidate competing from outside the two major parties has little to no chance of making a serious challenge.

Surely Nader, who had run for President for the first time back in 1992, is not new to this statistical fact.

Second-in-Command
Competition for the vice-presidential nominees on both sides is heating up, with Kansas governor Kathleen Sebelius the favorite at 4/1. Defeated Democratic primary candidate Hillary Clinton is next on 5/1.

On the Republican side former Massachusetts governor and defeated Republican primary candidate Mitt Romney is a warm favorite at 5/2. He is followed by Alaskan governor Sarah Palin, 5/1, and Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, 6/1.  Billionaires Steve Forbes, 66/1, and Bill Gates, 100/1 are also apparently contenders.

Former Secretary of State Colin Powell is listed as 100/1 for both the Democratic and Republican vice-presidential contests.

Electoral College System
The US president is elected by receiving a majority (270) of the 538 Electoral College votes. Each state is allocated a certain number of votes based on their population, California the biggest with 55, and the smallest states having a minimum of three. 

However, the trick is the winner of the popular vote in each state obtains the complete number of Electoral College votes on offer in that state.  That means the winner of California takes all 55 votes on offer and goes a long way toward acquiring the presidency.

As such, attention is invariably focused on several large swing states that could make or break the entire election.

Bets can be made on the result in some of these states, with Ladbrokes choosing to focus on Florida (the state that decided the fate of the controversial 2000 election), Ohio and Virginia. Obama is a firm favorite in Ohio and Virginia, but trails in Florida where McCain is 8/13 odds against Obama's 5/4 to take the 27 Electoral College votes.

Clinton 2012?
Amazingly, speculation has already begun on the 2012 presidency, with Ladbrokes offering odds of 10/1 for Hillary Clinton to make it second time lucky. She has no competition in the odds as yet, with bookmakers as much in the dark as everybody else about who will run.