Brexit Betting Markets Predict No Reign for Brexit Deal Nor Boris
Published December 27, 2020 by Lee R
The likelihood of the Brexit deal falling through is affecting betting patterns that encompass re-election.
As mentioned in several previous articles, betting patterns serve as legitimate prediction markets for the outcomes of key political events.
Brexit Faith Falling
With the deadline for a Brexit deal fast approaching, heavy prognostication on whether Boris Jonson will reach an agreement with the European Union to exit indicates hope is fading, despite the citizens of the UK previously voting in favor of the departure.
Punting on Failure
The chance of a deal between the EU and the UK for a Brexit have dropped from 90% to 69% in recent days, according to Smarkets betting exchange data, indicating that punters are rapidly losing faith in what Boris Johnson originally characterized as an “oven-ready” deal to leave the Union—which has further ramifications for Boris Johnson's own ability to remain in office.
Smarkets Political Analyst Patrick Flynn warned of further fluctuations, calling the market a “fast-moving situation, however, as these odds have improved by 24 points this morning alone.”
Deadline Issues
Flynn says the timing is even more of a problem than the deal's contents at this point, because there is not enough time to get European Parliamentary backing for whatever terms the negotiating MEP's agree on—if they agree at all.
Corona Adds to Problems
The possibility of Johnson's once-seemingly sure Brexit deal falling through would damage Johnson's popularity in a time in which his image is under attack on several fronts, according to Flynn:
“Besides Brexit, Boris Johnson is also facing a huge surge in coronavirus infections domestically, with countries in Europe and across the world closing their borders to the UK in response.”
Harder to Lead than Thought
Flynn believes the UK's new coronavirus problem is liable to set the table for a generally chaotic atmosphere that could usurp the Brexit deal by the January deadline.
Re-election Chances Shift
All of these negative outcomes could conspire to dissipate support for Johnsons, which Flynn reports has eroded to 37% in prediction markets to leave office before the end of next year--for the same UK leader who was so fanatically supported by UK voters during the original Brexit vote, as the veritable face of Brexit.
Outlook
For punters, the UK's sudden perceived epicenter status rings out for against Johnson as unexpected adversity that makes it harder to lead.
