In a Scenario Fraught with Unlikelihood, Second Impeachment Odds Remain Consistent with the Times
Published January 31, 2021 by Lee R
Early arguments have resulted in insufficient GOP votes to precurse a second Trump impeachment.
Prediction markets are not hot on the Trump impeachment, because facts are not the primary determining factors in the outcome.
Voting Requirements
In this case, 17 GOP Senators are required to break ranks in February and vote in support of conviction, and the odds of that taking place are at this point quite slim.
Basis of Charges
No one will forget the visuals of Trump rallying the crowd that subsequently stormed Capitol Hill, providing the basis for which nine Democratic impeachment managers delivered an article to the Senate on 26 January accusing the former of inciting violence—but politics today prioritize party loyalty over facts.
With the Senate impeachment trial to take place in February, case preparation for the legal arguments from both sides is now well underway.
Unlikely Circumstances Abound
There are a myriad of unlikely circumstances to this scenario already, including the first time an American president faces a second impeachment and the first time the impeached President has already left office.
Constitutionality Vote Previews
Ongoing arguments in the US Senate regarding the Constitutionality of trying a President who has already left office are serving to weaken bookmaker's beliefs in an actual conviction for the second impeachment, holding course with the skeptical odds for conviction on the first impeachment.
Early Returns
Early signs are rooted in the result of an brought to the Senate by Senator Rand Paul considering the extent of constitutionality of the second impeachment. The five Republican senators voting to proceed with the trial left 45 GOP senators voting the trial as unconstitutional.
The Impending Hurdle for Impeachment
With a two-thirds majority vote necessary to convict, at least 17 GOP senators must vote in favor of impeachment along with all other Democrats.
Trump Stays in Play
So, the odds of 12 more Senators breaking ranks in the actual trial are looking quite tall. The long odds on conviction preventing Trump from holding public office in turn keep the odds competitive on whether Trump can win the Presidential election in 2024.
Outlook
Ultimately and as usual in recent years, the winds of politics are overshadowing any merit of justice or evaluation of evidence in the impeachment trials, keeping Trump alive and thriving in Presidential betting, if not in the Oval Office.
