Macau Shows Robust Rebound for Those Who are Truly Patient in New Morgan Stanley ReportPublished May 21, 2021 by Lee R
According to MS research, the long game will prevail in Macau, with drivers of growth visible by 2022.
The Comeback Trail
An economy that relies on gambling like no other jurisdiction, long term plans if not protocols are being put in place to restore Macau to its former grandeur, whenever that might be.
2022 Closes In
But after a year of stifling closures, a prudent project that focuses on 2022 does not seem so distant anymore—nor so bad of a wait.
Morgan Stanley analysts Praveen Choudhary, Thomas Allen and Gareth Leung recently slowed things down a bit for a more realistic look at recovery in Macau, putting their findings in a research note entitled “Welcome to 2022: Beyond reopening.”
The New Macau
What they came up with is a “new-look Macau” for the post-COVID world that provides a realistic Road Map for Macau's recovery.
The new-look Macau promises to be better prepare for the “changing face of the Chinese consumer,” with greater emphasis on increasing supplemental services such as high end hotel rooms.
GGR Rebound Predicted
The Morgan Stanley optimistically estimates that gross gaming revenues in Macau will recover from around 55% of 2019 levels in 2021 to 97% by 2022.
The MS analysts report that “Macau stocks are up 16% [year to date],” while recommending to investors to focus beyond 2022 for specific reasons that are grounds for optimism.
IR Projects Remain Robust
This includes the Macau Cotai IR hotel capacity increased by 13% in 2022, with fixed operating expenses down 4% resulting to drive an estimated 15% increase in EBITDA.
Other IR projects are not shying away either, with SJM Holdings staying on schedule to open Grand Lisboa Palace in mid-2021.
More Supplemental Services
The researchers make a more general reference to “high end premium mass services” which “will greet visitors” in the post-Pandemic Macau in 2022, calling such near term catalysts only the beginning of extended growth for investors who buy into the new Macau at this ground-floor stage.
In an economy whose private concessionaires lost over $4 billion, the supply in Macau for gaming and gaming-related services is being diversified to meet the demand that continues to exist and made Macau famous.