On Election Eve, Obama Still Odds-on
Published November 2, 2008 by OCR Editor
Bookmakers are even tempting gamblers with 67.00 odds on Obama winning all states.
With just a couple of days until Americans decide who will be their next President, Barack Obama continues to hold a commanding lead in the odds, just as he does in the opinion polls.
It would take a brave observer to put money on Republican candidate John McCain, but it would pay generous dividends if the Arizona senator does pull off a miraculous upset - he is a long-shot 7.00 at Ladbrokes, as he is at most bookmakers. Obama is 1.08.
Electoral College
Odds of 3.00 are now being offered on Obama winning 370 or
more states, a huge victory in a contest where either candidate needs just 270
of the 538 electoral college votes to claim the presidency. This option has
been introduced into the betting options at Ladbrokes in order to save some of
excitement, as the obvious bet on who will win the race seems to have lost its
edge.
McCain's chances of winning 370 or more are 67.00. Incredibly, the same odds are being offered on Obama winning every state - something unprecedented in US history. Those odds are probably being a little generous to the favorite, for even the Democrats would concede they cannot win certain states in the Republican heartland, including McCain's home state of Arizona.
The odds of 1.83 on McCain winning 22 states or more (against the same odds on him winning 21 or less) are far more realistic.
Senate Race
With the Democrats also predicted to hold a significant
majority in the senate to aid Obama in his presidency, odds are also being
offered on just how many they will win.
Sixty of a possible 100 appears just beyond them, at odds of 2.75. The odds on 59 or less are currently quoted as 1.40.
