With the 98th Academy Awards days away, prediction markets are revealing where bettors believe the biggest Oscars will land. From Best Picture to Best Actor, volumes highlight the favourites and potential upsets shaping Hollywood's biggest night.
Hollywood’s biggest night, Sunday 15 March 2026, is approaching fast. As the 98th Academy Awards (also called the Oscars) draw closer, prediction markets are offering a fascinating look at where the industry’s most coveted trophies may land.
Clear trends show across major prediction market categories like Best Picture, Best Actor, and Best Director, making this year’s Oscars the perfect betting opportunity. There are literally millions in trading volume, revealing what the smart money is gambling on.
With clear frontrunners to tight races, punters have both strong favourites and genuine upset potential to explore. From total Oscars wins to technical categories, bettors have dozens of ways to bet before the final envelopes are opened.
Beyond the red carpet and speeches, bettors are closely watching the numbers. Prediction markets, such as Polymarket, track millions in trading volume across categories, revealing real-time sentiment about which nominees are most likely to win.
Here’s a look at the props currently attracting the most attention:
The Best Picture market, with nearly $30m in trading volume, currently has a clear favourite:
For months, “One Battle After Another” has dominated predictions for both Best Picture and Best Director. Momentum around “Sinner” has grown recently and can quickly shift probabilities as the film leads the nominations list with a record-breaking 16.
Currently exceeding $7m in volume, the Best Actor market is shaping up to be one of the most competitive races on the night. With probabilities so close, this category remains one of the most unpredictable heading into the ceremony:
Jordan’s performance in “Sinners” has kept him slightly ahead, but Chalamet’s incredible role delivery in “Marty Supreme” continues to draw strong support from bettors.
This category, with ⁓$5m in volume, is one of the clearest races on the betting board:
Unless something dramatic shifts before the ceremony, this category appears almost settled.
The Best Supporting Actor race, currently attracting over $4,4m, has veteran actor Sean Penn firmly in the lead:
Penn’s role in “One Battle After Another” continues to generate momentum, while Skarsgård's performance in “Sentimental Value” has earned backing.
The Best Supporting Actress category, with $2,1m in volume, remains one of the closest races:
Madigan holds a slim advantage for her role in “Weapons,” but Taylor and Mosaku are still within striking distance.
Unlike some categories with clear leaders, the Best Actress Winner (nearly $2m in volume) is still highly uncertain:
Award season buzz and final voting trends, however, could still reshape this market.
Beyond the main awards, prediction platforms feature some creative side bets:
Bettors are also predicting total award counts for the biggest contenders:
There are dozens of markets remaining, including Best Film Editing, Adapted Screenplay, Original Song Writer, and Original Screenplay. You can even start betting on which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards.
Do you want to be part of the excitement on Hollywood’s biggest night? Now is the perfect time to explore trusted online casinos and betting sites offering award markets. From predicting Best Picture to backing surprise acting winners, there’s no shortage of ways to get involved before the envelopes are opened.
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