Sigma World News Release: President Joe Biden at Odds of 17% for Re-election
Published May 4, 2023 by Brett C
As the 2024 US Presidential election approaches, bookmakers and pollsters predict that President Joe Biden faces an uphill battle to secure re-election. Meanwhile, potential candidates like Vice President Kamala Harris, Nikki Haley, and Ron DeSantis are gearing up for the race. With diverse issues at stake, only time will tell who will emerge victorious.
A president's odds of winning re-election depend on various factors, including their approval rating, the state of the economy, domestic and foreign policy successes and failures, and the strength of their opponent(s). Historical patterns can provide insight into a president's likelihood of re-election. Still, politics can be unpredictable, and unexpected events can sometimes upend even the most carefully crafted predictions.
According to Sigma World's analysis, President Joe Biden has a 17% chance (+500 odds) of being re-elected in the next presidential election, making him an underdog. In contrast, former President Donald Trump is the bookies' favorite, with a 25% chance (+300 odds) of winning the election if he secures the Republican nomination.
Trump previously served one term as president and, if he were to win in 2024, would follow in the footsteps of President Stephen Grover Cleveland, who served two non-consecutive terms in the late 19th century. The election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024. These betting odds reflect the current political landscape, but unexpected events could influence the outcome, as with any election.
The Lay of the Presidential Land: How Voters May Respond
As the next US Presidential election approaches, bookmakers and pollsters have begun analyzing the odds of the incumbent president winning re-election. Despite his victory over Donald Trump in the 2020 election, President Joe Biden is currently considered an underdog, with betting odds of +500 indicating a 17% chance of winning. Meanwhile, former President Trump, if he secures the Republican nomination, is seen as the current favorite, with +300 odds and a 25% chance of victory.
While historical patterns suggest that incumbents have an advantage in presidential elections, the political landscape is unpredictable, and unforeseen events could influence the outcome. Pollsters suggest that Biden's middle-class roots and lack of perceived elitism could make him appear more relatable to voters. On the other hand, there are concerns about the ages of both candidates, with Trump at 78 and Biden at 81 by the time of the election, making it the first time opposing candidates are both over 75.
In the 2020 election, Trump's promise to "make America greater" resonated with voters, while Biden campaigned on a platform of "restoring decency." As the country moves towards the 2024 election, the potential candidacy of Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida, is also being considered, with some predicting that he would defeat Biden in a head-to-head race.
Ultimately, the odds of an incumbent president winning re-election depend on many factors, including the state of the economy, foreign policy successes and failures, and the strength of their opponents. As the race heats up and the candidates gear up for the fight of their political careers, only time will tell who will emerge victorious.
Not All Plain Sailing for President Joe Biden
- Biden faced challenges upon becoming President, including managing the COVID-19 pandemic.
- He successfully implemented a US $1.9 trillion relief package and oversaw significant progress in vaccine distribution.
- A US $1.2 trillion infrastructure investment was approved with bipartisan support.
- Despite these achievements, challenges such as inflation and supply chain disruptions remain.
- The impact of Biden's accomplishments and challenges on his re-election chances remains to be seen.
Making the Case for Other Candidates
President Joe Biden has prioritized promoting diversity, opposing capital punishment, and combatting climate change. He has made significant strides in appointing federal judges, with 80% of new judges being women and 53% coming from minority backgrounds. Biden has also paused federal executions and vowed to eradicate capital punishment.
Vice President Kamala Harris, Nikki Haley, and Ron DeSantis are among the potential presidential candidates as the next presidential election approaches. Harris, the first female African American and Asian American Vice President, has yet to gain strong backing from the electorate. Haley, a former governor and US ambassador, has officially announced her candidacy for the Republican nomination, focusing on uniting America on abortion. DeSantis, the Governor of Florida, is rumored to be a potential Vice President choice for Donald Trump.
Bookmakers currently favor Trump's re-election, but anything can happen in politics, and unexpected events could change the course of the race. Ultimately, it will be up to voters to decide the election's outcome, and American democracy allows its citizens to make their decisions.
