We Want Macau to Come Back, but the End is Not Quite in SightPublished December 21, 2020 by Lee R
Foreign travel trickling into Macau in 2021 is the limited tangible sign from data for recovery.
Macau city casinos are currently indicating a clear extension of the downward trend, with likely drops over the rest of the year closing out an awful year.
November's Best Efforts
Last month launched promisingly, with an average daily GGR in November's first week of a solid enough $31.1 million. Alas, that figure plunged to $23.2 million in week 2 to keep the monthly draw at generational lows.
COVID-19 has clearly and indisputably turned Macau's 2020 into an utter write-off at best, with the long term ramifications of this year's disruptions sure to give 2021's best efforts a strong run for the money as it were.
December Not Looking Good
That's because the earliest returns for thius month indicate Macau’s GGR is 11% lower than week 1 of November. Analysts project Macau''s GGR to $150 million for the period, with the projected daily total of $25 million some 72% lower than the first week of December 2019. This is also a good $3 million of this November 2020's pace of $28 million per day.
As far as market segmentation is concerned, data shows Macau's mass gaming segment rebounding more quickly than the VIP segment. This is a major drop-off from where iGaming and regional stakeholders would prefer to see it, with the disappointment compounded by projections of 2020's year-on-year drops at 65%-70%.
VIP volumes paint an even less appetizing picture, with drop-offs for the year projected to a thoroughly unsightly 80%, rendering mass gaming's lesser drop-off the life preserver that pundits attribute to keeping the city afloat.
As for signs of hope, Bernstein forecasts project visitation to pick up in Macau over the next several months to jump-start the recovery process—except from neighbouring Hong Kong, where COVID-19 restrictions have flared up with a fourth wave of virus to keep the Hong Kong-Macau broder closed.
Locally, new hope arises from the announcment of 1.4 vaccines en route to Macau which will be administered for free: however sans peer-reviewed vaccine data: the question is how many healthy people will be able to participate in Macau's economy, and how many healthy players will they be able to serve?