Game Awards 2025 - Is Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 Unbeatable?

The Game of the Year 2025 awards are fast approaching, and bettors are scrambling to make their best predictions before the big event on 11 December. For months, the conversation has circled back to one title: Clair Obscur: Expedition 33.

But here’s the thing: even when the favourite looks untouchable, these awards always manage to reveal at least one unexpected twist.

Let’s walk you through the current predictions (based on real Polymarket trading volumes), the frontrunners, the “maybe” games, and the long shots. Additionally, we’ll cover how to actually read and use prediction-market signals without getting trapped by the hype.

The Most Popular GOTY Prediction Markets

Without a doubt, the GOTY 2025 is shaping up to be one of the least surprising and yet most fascinating nights in recent Game Awards history. An international jury vote will be the primary factor in determining the winner, with the remaining 10% coming from the public. 

To help you with your props (probability bets), see our simplified table of the props market options with the highest Polymarket activity around the event:

How Prediction Markets Interpret Game Award Outcomes

Prediction markets allow people to buy and sell outcomes like stocks and make informed props. The catch is that prices (and odds) can move swiftly when new information hits. 

Factors include nominations, leaks, developer interviews, or even shifts in community sentiment. Here’s generally what traders consider:

• Critical momentum matters more than user reviews.
• Nomination count is historically the strongest predictor of GOTY winners.
• Debut studio narratives often outperform big-studio expectations.

So when you see Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 trading at 90%+, that's not just hype; it's a reflection of a stacked combination of reviews, nominations, narrative power, and the lack of a credible challenger.

Top Contenders for Game of the Year 2025

Below are the five leading nominees for this coveted slot, ranked by their likelihood of winning based on both prediction trends and long-form critical analysis.

1. Clair Obscur: Expedition 33:

As a debut Role-Playing Game (RPG) from Sandfall Interactive, Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 seems to have hypnotised critics, players, and prediction traders alike. 

Why it’s winning right now:

• Twelve nominations, which is the most in Game Awards history.
• Universally praised storytelling and visual direction.
• A breakout debut studio narrative that the jury tends to reward.

Weaknesses: With almost no negatives, its biggest risk is psychological: voters assuming it will win and distributing votes elsewhere.

Momentum: Sitting above 90% for weeks now, this contender is holding the top spot steadily. 

2. Hollow Knight: Silksong:

Why it could upset:

• Huge fan following, and critics love it.
• Nominated five times.
• A long-awaited sequel that the jury may want to "make up for" after the original missed out.

Weaknesses: 

• It’s a brutally difficult game, and in a way that divides critics.
• Only five nominations (lower than expected).

Additionally, the Silksong total awards prediction market has a decent spread, but nothing suggesting a GOTY miracle. Here are the probability predictions: 

• 1 win: ~35%
• 2 wins: ~35%
• 3 wins: ~26%
• 0 wins: ~18%

3. Donkey Kong Bananza:

Why does it have a chance:

• Excellent critical reception (90+ scores).
• Considered fresh for a Nintendo platformer.
• Strong nostalgia and franchise revival energy.

Weaknesses:

• Jury tends to undervalue family platformers.
• Only two GOTY nominations, which is a red flag.

Momentum: Up slightly, but still distant.

4. Kingdom Come: Deliverance II:

Why it’s not dead yet:

• Ambitious RPG with strong storytelling.
• Sales boost and media buzz thanks to a well-timed free weekend.
• Appeals to core gamers and long-form critics.

Weaknesses:

• The studio’s political controversies.
• Niche appeal and long runtime reduce jury penetration.
• Only received three GOTY nominations.

Momentum: Climbing, but not enough.

5. Death Stranding 2: On the Beach:

Why it's dangerous:

• Eight nominations (very strong).
• Kojima magic with Sony backing.
• Critically acclaimed sequel (most original issues are fixed).

Weaknesses:

• Perception of being “the establishment choice.”
• Concerns over "Kojima-Keighley" closeness.

Momentum: Sliding slightly.

How to Read GOTY Probability: A Quick Guide

If you want to use prediction-market data effectively without getting lost in the noise, follow our quick betting guide below:

Do’s:

• Look at volume, as low-volume markets are unreliable.
• Watch for price cliffs: sudden jumps usually follow real information.
• Compare nominations vs. odds (they often move in sync).

Don’ts:

• Chase hype during review-bombing cycles.
• Treat early-year markets as gospel.
• Rely on “fan favourite” logic (the jury rarely matches Reddit sentiment).

Pros & Cons of Using Prediction Markets

Pros:

• Real-time sentiment updates
• Data reacts faster than the media
• Helps filter realistic contenders
• Combines expert and crowd input

Cons:

• Low-volume markets can mislead
• Traders often overreact to hype
• Winning doesn’t mean “best game” (jury biases)
• Niche categories are often entirely ignored 

GOTY: Predictably Unstable, But Fun!

Whether you treat the Game Awards as gaming's Oscars or simply a fun way to celebrate the industry, this year's contest outcome feels both clear-cut and oddly unstable. Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 looks like an immovable favourite, but nothing’s guaranteed. 

And if we’ve learned anything from past prediction cycles, it’s that the data can tighten fast in the final week. So get in on the action by claiming a welcome bonus from one of our recommended betting sites and lock in your predictions.