Movie Prediction Markets: Spider-Man, James Bond, and the Next Big Blockbuster

Movie fans have plenty to speculate about, but prediction markets are putting real-money bets behind those guesses. 

Polymarket’s Movies category features more than 70 markets, covering everything from box-office records to casting decisions and superhero cameos.

Follow The Biggest Movie Prediction Markets

Movies are one of the largest sections of Polymarket’s pop culture offering. With more than 440 markets across entertainment, music, awards, and other topics, the category provides plenty of opportunity for traders to follow Hollywood’s biggest stories.

Five markets stand out for their trading activity and the questions they ask.

1. Highest-Grossing Movie in 2026:

Market volume: ⁓$17,492,868

The biggest market in this selection asks which movie will become the highest-grossing film of 2026. It has attracted nearly $18 million in trading volume, making it one of the most active movie markets on Polymarket.

Spider-Man: Brand New Day leads the current market at 94%, although the supplied market snapshot places its individual trading at around $660,000. Avengers: Doomsday follows at 3.7%, while the remaining contenders are all below 1%.

The table below shows that several other films have attracted substantial trading volume, even with implied probabilities below 1%.

The market’s recent movement has largely followed the reported box-office performance of Spider-Man: Brand New Day. The supplied data places its domestic gross at roughly $944.5 million by September 20, following a reported $360 million opening weekend.

The market also highlights the broad range of movies attracting interest. Scream 7, Wuthering Heights, Project Hail Mary, and Wicked: For Good have all generated more than $2 million, $1.4 million, or $2.2 million in individual market volume, depending on the title.

2. Who Will Be the Next James Bond?

Market volume: ⁓$984,894

The search for the next James Bond continues to attract attention, with Jack Lowden leading the market at 38.6%.

Tom Francis, Theo James, Henry Cavill, Josh O’Connor, and Jacob Elordi are also listed at 1%.

3. Spider-Man: Brand New Day Gross by 30 September:

Market volume: ⁓$865,519

This market focuses on a much narrower question: Where will Spider-Man: Brand New Day finish domestically by the end of September? The $950-$960 million range leads with an implied probability of ⁓98.2%. The $940-$950 million range follows at ⁓2%, while the higher brackets remain below 1%.

The supplied figures in the market context section place the film at ⁓$944.5 million domestically on September 20. With the deadline around the corner, traders are considering if the film can move comfortably into the next $10 million bracket.

4. Which Movie Will Have the Biggest Opening Week in 2026?:

Market volume: ⁓$200,947

The opening-week market presents a much closer contest between two Marvel-related blockbusters. Avengers: Doomsday leads at ⁓57%, with Spider-Man: Brand New Day at ⁓41%. The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping and Dune: Messiah are both below 1%.

In this market, the focus is on the opening week rather than the entire calendar year. Avengers: Doomsday has attracted attention through its franchise status, reported presales and promotional activity. Spider-Man, meanwhile, has already demonstrated considerable box-office strength.

5. Which Characters Will Appear in Avengers: Doomsday?

Market volume: ⁓$149,982

The fifth market moves into the world of Marvel casting speculation. It asks which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday, with separate outcomes for individual actors and roles.

Halle Berry as Storm, Don Cheadle as James Rhodes/War Machine, Andrew Garfield as Spider-Man, and Evangeline Lilly as the Wasp sit between 15% and 26%, while Jonathan Majors as Kang is below the 10% mark. 

Bet on Tomorrow’s Blockbusters

Want to explore more prediction-style markets? Visit our recommended betting platforms and crypto casinos that offer props. You can also follow our coverage of crypto prediction markets, award-event predictions, and popular sports markets for more stories attracting attention.