NFL Betting: A Guide and Sneak Preview

The drafts have been picked, some players have been cut and pre-season training for the sixteen NFL teams is well under way. The 2013/14 season ended with a win for the Seattle Seahawks, playing the kind of smash-mouth football in the Superbowl that literally blew the Denver Broncos away. What chances are there for a repeat performance?

Seattle Still On Top

Some of the biggest sports books take a look at the upcoming season and offer odds.

According to Winner Sports, three of the favorites for the Vince Lombardi trophy in February 2015 are in ascending order; Seattle Seahawks at 6.50, Denver Broncos at 7.00 and the San Francisco 49ers at 8.00.

According to William Hill Sports, those same three teams are the most likely winners of the Superbowl, with the Seahawks at 6/1 and the Broncos and 49ers tied at 7/1. San Francisco has had its best run of form in the last 3 seasons since the golden days of the Montana-Rice axis and were one win away in 2013 from a shot at completing back-to-back Superbowls. They are considered to have one of the strongest rosters in football, so who else is in contention and how do you define the odds?

Formula for Prediction

The most basic formula is to review the win-loss record of teams from the 2013 season and make a prediction based on that and on the relative strengths of their 2014 rosters. That does not, however, take into account that some Conferences have easier games than others. It is generally thought that the AFC South teams have a less taxing schedule, closely followed by the AFC North. The toughest games are those fought out in the AFC West and NFC West.

If we take into account a strength of schedule numbers, i.e., who is slated to have the hardest games, shows that Oakland, Arizona, Carolina and Minnesota face the four toughest slates. New England and Washington are two teams who might not have attracted so much attention, but they are scheduled to have slightly easier than average slates.

The trick as always is to really do your homework and hope that you don't give up a big fumble when it comes to betting on the NFL season. And, if you're in the market for betting, use a trusted site like Winner Sports and William Hill Sports.